January 15 News Items

Covey Editorial: Not ‘Rolling the Dice’ (Source: Florida Today)
The ongoing debate regarding the safety of flying the space shuttle beyond 2010 has been unfairly slanted in recent weeks by the use of sensational and vastly misunderstood risk probability numbers, suggesting NASA would be rolling the dice to do so. Space shuttle safety is not a random event. It is derived from carefully understanding and then controlling or mitigating known risks. Each launch and mission is carefully planned and controlled to assure the highest probability of a safe and successful outcome. A great deal of work has been done to derive “probabilistic risk assessments” (PRA) of specific shuttle components that, when combined mathematically, show a relative risk of loss of crew or vehicle for any single mission to be 1 in 77.

That would also indicate that each and every time we launch, there is a greater than 98 percent probability of returning the crew safely. To further improve on that, controls on every mission take into account what we learned on previous missions, enhancing shuttle safety factors and raising even higher the probability of a safe mission. The often-quoted PRA numbers do not factor in the continuous improvement in the vehicle and operations — of which there have been numerous and significant changes — or the quality and performance of the team that makes it work. PRA estimates alone should never be used to reach a go/no-go determination on flying one, two or 10 more missions.

Applying statistical probability techniques to the space shuttle PRA number to determine the risk of flying multiple missions implies a randomness in safe shuttle operations that does not exist. The shuttle currently operates at the highest level of safety in its history. It is not without risk, but that risk is better understood and mitigated now than at any time in shuttle history. (1/15)

Europe Expects Busy Year in Space (Source: BBC)
Europe will launch two flagship space telescopes this year, and three satellites that will acquire key data about ice, gravity and soils on Earth. European Space Agency boss Jean-Jacques Dordain set out his priorities for 2009 at a Paris briefing on Wednesday. He said 2008's successes, which saw the Columbus science lab attached to the space station, were "exceptional". ESA activity this year will witness the recruitment of new astronauts and the start of Soyuz launches from the European spaceport at Kourou in French Guiana. The Soyuz initiative has required considerable investment at Kourou, to construct facilities that are a facsimile of those at the Russian rocket's traditional home of Baikonur, Kazakhstan. (1/15)

Nelson: Candidate Lacks NASA History (Source: Florida Today)
President-elect Barack Obama appears poised to nominate a retired Air Force general for the top spot at NASA, but an influential senator is concerned about the apparent frontrunner's lack of space program experience. Retired Maj. Gen. Jonathan Scott Gration, who is one of Obama's top military and foreign policy advisers, is emerging as the leading candidate for the NASA administrator post being vacated next week by current agency chief Mike Griffin, according to people familiar with the process. U.S. Sen. Bill Nelson, who sits on the committee that will hold confirmation hearings for the nominee, is urging Obama to select a candidate with a space background. Nelson -- who flew on the shuttle in 1986 with another potential candidate, former astronaut Charles Bolden -- called Obama-Biden Transition Team Co-Chairman John Podesta on Wednesday to weigh in on the issue. (1/15)

Discovery Rolled Out to Pad (Source: SpaceToday.net)
The space shuttle Discovery was rolled out to the launch pad Wednesday as preparations continue for its launch next month to the ISS. Discovery is scheduled to lift off February 12 on mission STS-119 to the International Space Station. The crew will install the S6 truss segment on the station and deploy its solar arrays, and also exchange one member of the station's crew. (1/15)

Delta 4 Launch Scrubbed Again (Source: SpaceToday.net)
A fault valve scrubbed Wednesday night's scheduled launch of a classified payload on a Delta 4 Heavy rocket. Controllers scrubbed the launch of the giant rocket after encountering a problem with a gaseous nitrogen valve in ground equipment used to purge air from various compartments of the vehicle; without the system working the rocket could not be fueled and the launch was thus postponed. The launch has been rescheduled for Thursday at 7:41 pm. The launch had been previously planned for Tuesday but was postponed to repair some insulation on the launch vehicle. (1/15)