October 28, 2019

Virgin Orbit Says Its Light Footprint Enables it to Launch Outside the US Without ITAR Tech Export Issues (Source: Space Intel Report)
Virgin Orbit said its plans to use spaceports in Japan and the UK will not be sytmied by US export control regulations because the launches will not involve the transfer of US technology. "In terms of the regulatory side of this, we will need to go through certain channels to enable taking our system over there, but there will be no export of US technology," said John Fuller of Virgin Orbit.

The mobile launch service, which in addition to LauncherOne includes a Class 8 cleanroom and kerosene and liquid-oxygen fuel trailers, can be shipped worldwide. "I can take this entire system, deliver it to an airport, keep our staff and security staff there, run through the launch of one mission, two missions, eight missions, and then once we're done we pack up and leave and you wouldn't even know we were there," he said. "That's really how we approach the regulatory framework." (10/28)

Virgin Galactic Is a Huge Financial Risk (Source: Bloomberg)
Richard Branson’s pet project will doubtless provide a thrilling service, but as an investment it’s not for the fainthearted. Virgin Galactic expects to be valued at $2.3 billion. Deduct its cash and that’s three times the revenue it might generate in 2023 and 7 times expected Ebitda (a measure of cash earnings). That’s a sky-high price for a business with so much to prove. Even if all goes well, Virgin Galactic can’t be sure of the demand for space travel.

Virgin Galactic will use the cash to build more spaceships. It says the funds will last for at least two years, by which time commercial space flights should have begun. Right now the company isn’t generating much revenue and is burning through cash rapidly. Over the past 30 months its net losses totaled more than $360 million. But by 2023 Virgin aims to have five spacecraft, each carrying at least five passengers and conducting five flights per month. Once paid-for flights start, the commercial pressure will ratchet up.

In reality, things could be bumpier. The company still needs final authorization from the FAA to achieve its aim of starting to transport customers next year. In view of a fatal accident involving Virgin Galactic in 2014, one assumes the FAA will be cautious. Any technical problems that ground the fleet would shake customer confidence. If Virgin can’t take off, it will have to use more of its cash and might conceivably have to raise more equity, which would dilute investors. (10/28)

Coming Together To Go To The Moon (Source: Space Review)
Last week, there was a lot of discussion at the International Astronautical Congress about both countries and companies partnering on NASA’s Artemis program to return humans to the Moon. Jeff Foust reports that while there were signs of progress, funding issues could slow the agency down. Click here. (10/28)
 
One Scientist’s 15-Year (and Counting) Quest to Save Earth From Asteroid Impacts (Source: Space Review)
Last month NASA announced it would proceed with development of a space telescope to search for near Earth asteroids outside of its usual set of planetary science missions. Three University of Arizona scientists explain why this is a major milestone for the researcher who has advocated for such a mission for 15 years. Click here. (10/28)
 
A Possible Technique for Giving Names to Nameless Satellites (Source: Space Review)
Some objects in orbit are missing from official government satellite catalogs even as they’re tracked by hobbyists. Charles Phillips discusses one approach to linking those observed but uncatalogued satellites with their real identities. Click here. (10/28)

NASA Should Shed Lesser Priorities to achieve a 2024 Moon Landing (Source: Space News)
President Trump and Vice President Pence directed NASA to achieve the challenging goal of landing U.S. astronauts on the moon by 2024. NASA Administrator Jim Bridenstine has correctly stressed having this near-term goal should help the program succeed. This should drive NASA to a streamlined program with straightforward procurements. It should drive NASA to form a lean, skilled management approach that provides focus to design and integration detail and achieving milestones on schedule.

The single highest priority from the White House is for NASA to land U.S. astronauts on the moon by 2024. NASA has mixed other priorities into its plan that make 2024 nearly impossible to achieve. NASA’s current approach is overly complex and risky. A small space station designed to orbit the moon and support future Mars missions, Gateway is a NASA internal priority.

The Gateway is arbitrarily imposed and is slowing America’s progress back to the moon. Its developments are being built from the ground up. For missions to the moon, each flight element is required to fit on commercial launch vehicles with limited lift capability. But, because of the lift limitations, NASA needs transfer vehicles and refueling elements to enable assembly and fueling in space. It’s a complex process, made more so by the fact that the lunar lander and ascent vehicles are launched separately to the Gateway for assembly and fueling. (10/27)

Japan's Mitsubishi May Upgrade H3 Rocket for Lunar Missions (Source: Space News)
Mitsubishi Heavy Industries is considering upgrades of its H3 rocket for lunar missions. A company official said last week that upgrades of the H3's upper stage could allow it to send an HTV-X cargo spacecraft to the lunar Gateway using two launches, one to place the HTV-X in orbit and the other an upper stage with enlarged fuel tank to dock with the cargo spacecraft and boost it to the moon. A later upgrade to the H3, with a triple-core design like the Falcon Heavy, could send a cargo spacecraft to the moon on a single mission. (10/28)

Air Force to Study Launch Requirements (Source: Space News)
The Air Force is starting a new study of space architectures as it considers the long-term future of space launch. In a request for information (RFI) posted Friday, the Air Force Space and Missile Systems Center announced the start of a National Security Launch Architecture study. The study is an effort to gain deeper insight into the launch industry's capabilities and planned investments as the Air Force begins to lay out future requirements for the next phase of the National Security Space Launch program. The RFI seeks responses by mid-November on commercial and civil demand for launches, as well as what non-existing launch and orbit transfer capabilities satellite operators wish were available. (10/28)

Northrop Grumman to Launch OmegA Rocket From California Delta-4 Pad (Source: Space News)
Northrop Grumman will launch its OmegA rocket from a California launch pad currently used by the Delta 4. A Northrop executive said last week it would use Space Launch Complex (SLC) 6 at Vandenberg Air Force Base for West Coast launches of its rocket. Modifications of SLC-6 would be "not as difficult as one might imagine" to support launches of the OmegA, whose lower stages use solid fuel. Delta 4 Heavy launches will take place through 2024, but Northrop believes it could work on pad modifications on a non-interference basis before the Delta's retirement if the Air Force selects the OmegA for development. (10/28)

Air Force Discusses Polar Launch Corridor From Florida (Source: NasaSpaceFlight.com)
In December 2017 the Air Force announced it had certified a polar launch corridor from Florida’s east coast. Many wondered if anyone would actually opt to launch a polar mission from Florida and compete with a growing launch cadence and demand from the Florida spaceport instead of utilizing the optimally-placed and designed Vandenberg Air Force Base (or Kodiak Alaska) for polar launches. Now we know the first polar mission, slated to launch No Earlier Than (NET) March 2020 will be SAOCOM-1B, launching aboard a SpaceX Falcon-9.

The Air Force mandated that rockets flying the new corridor must have an Automated Flight Safety System (AFSS). According to the Air Force: “AFSS allows the rocket to fly unconstrained from our command destruct coverage and without accommodation for legacy calculated processing response times. The response of the on-board decision logic is faster than our legacy architecture. The capability of the rocket is also important since it provides the necessary energy to make the required maneuvers to meet final orbital requirements.”

What NASASpaceflight understands is different about the Florida polar corridor is that launch providers will have to show justification for wanting to use Florida for polar launches instead of Vandenberg – especially if that provider has an operational polar launch pad at Vandenberg. Exactly what that justification can be is open to each request and will be reviewed by the Air Force. To this end, the Air Force noted, “At this time, Air Force Space Command does not foresee a change to the launch capabilities that both ranges provide. Click here. (10/28)

Does America Need a Space Force? (Source: Defense One)
A new service branch would put more bureaucracy between critical capabilities and the troops who need them. With the impeachment debate moving full speed ahead, President Trump may be hard-pressed to move forward on his larger agenda in the months to come. But a few key policy issues are likely to continue to be the subject of intense debate. One, of course, is the president’s much-touted and ill-conceived “wall” on the U.S.-Mexico border.

Another, less discussed but also close to his heart, is the president’s desire to build a Space Force as a sixth branch of the U.S. armed forces, alongside the Army, Navy, Marines, Air Force, and Coast Guard. How quickly the Space Force develops will depend in part on the outcome of this year’s National Defense Authorization Act, or NDAA, which in the short term at least is focused on parallel proposals to create a “space corps” in the House or a “space command” in the Senate under the supervision of the Air Force, which may or may not be a stepping stone towards a full-fledged Space Force.

As members of the Center for International Policy’s Sustainable Defense Task Force, we have strongly urged that a Space Force not be created, because it is likely to increase bureaucratic waste, encourage the development of costly and unworkable high-tech weapons systems, and to focus attention on the further militarization of space rather than how best to cooperatively manage the risks to America’s civilian and military space assets. It is also likely to be costly—recent reporting by Bloomberg indicates even the limited Space Development Agency would cost nearly $11 billion over the next 5 years. (10/9)

SpaceX President Teases Starship’s Game-Changing Starlink Launch Capabilities (Source: Teslarati)
SpaceX President and COO Gwynne Shotwell teased new information detailing the wealth of benefits that the next-generation Starship launch vehicle could bring for the deployment of the company’s Starlink internet satellite constellation. A SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket can launch 60 Starlink satellites at a time but that's only a fraction of what Starship will be able to do, President Gwynne Shotwell said. "Starship can take 400 satellites."

In light of this new figure of 400 satellites per individual Starship launch, it’s far easier to understand why SpaceX took the otherwise ludicrous step of reserving space for tens of thousands more Starlink satellites. Even if SpaceX arrives at a worst-case-scenario and is only able to launch Starship-Super Heavy once every 4-8 weeks for the first several years, that could translate to 2400-4800 Starlink satellites placed in orbit every year.

Given that 120 tons to LEO is well within Starship’s theoretical capabilities without orbital refueling, it’s entirely possible that Starship could surpass Falcon 9’s Starlink mass-to-orbit almost immediately after it completes its first orbital launch and recovery: a single Starship launch would be equivalent to almost 7 Falcon 9 missions. (10/28)

SpaceX Wants to Land Starship on the Moon Within Three Years, With People Soon After (Source: CNBC)
SpaceX President and COO Gwynne Shotwell gave an updated timeline on the company’s goals for the immense Starship rocket it is developing. “We want to land it on the moon before 2022 with cargo and with people shortly thereafter,” Shotwell said at an investor conference on Friday. Shotwell also gave insight into the company’s other ambitious program in development, a satellite internet network called Starlink. SpaceX wants to get to a rate where its launching 60 Starlink satellites “every other week to fill out the constellation,” Shotwell said. (10/27)