May 19, 2022

Starliner a Case Study in Fixed-Price Contracting (Source: Quartz)
Depending on how much profit margin it built into its bids, it seems likely that Boeing is losing money on Starliner. That might not change soon. SpaceX is selling trips on its Dragon to private citizens and companies, but Starliner will have a hard time doing the same: It is designed to fly on ULA’s Atlas V rocket, and eight have been reserved for the job—two for the remaining test flights, and six to ferry astronauts to the International Space Station during normal service.

There are no more Atlas V rockets left to assign to new missions. To fly paying customers (or if something goes wrong in the final test flights), ULA would need to upgrade its new rocket, Vulcan, to safely carry passengers, or Boeing would need to figure out how to launch Starliner on a competitor’s rocket. All that is a lot of risk for Boeing—indeed, risk that NASA intentionally shifted to the company as part of the procurement process. The commercial crew program is a fixed-price contract that incentivizes companies to be as efficient as possible. But while it’s good to see someone other than taxpayers on the hook for mismanagement and mistakes, Boeing’s struggles are both a justification for, and a threat to, the future of this model.

Let’s hope that Boeing executives think they can do a better job on their next fixed-price assignment, or at least feel NASA’s generous payments for building the Space Launch System make up some of the Starliner loss. The US space agency (and its space industry) need a competitor for SpaceX, and thus far none of the obvious contenders have stepped up to the plate. Boeing has the capital and the experience, but today it needs to prove it can execute. (5/19)

Space Logistics Markets Ready to Grow as On-Orbit Supplier Services Materialize (Source: Euroconsult)
A nascent but growing set of on-orbit space services, to be articulated as a space logistic ecosystem from launch to satellites’ end of life, are being developed by more than 50 companies. According to Euroconsult’s 1st edition of Space Logistic Markets report, this diverse set of on-orbit services is expected to generate $4.4 billion by 2031.

The six markets covered in this report highlight the development of end-to-end on-orbit mobility and associated services through Access to space, Last Mile Logistics (LML), Life Extension, Active Debris Removal (ADR), On-orbit Assembly and Manufacturing (OOAM) and Space Situational Awareness (SSA) at different stages of maturity.

The markets’ maturities are uneven across the space logistics value chain, with the report estimating SSA as the largest market with earnings of $1.4 billion over the next ten years, and LML evaluated as ten times smaller. A continuously growing satellite demand and a congested orbital environment are fueling the need for SSA services, whilst satellite operators are endorsing SSA services to increase domain awareness and protect their assets both above and on the ground. (5/19)

SpaceX Drops Plan to Build Mini LNG Plant at Texas Launch Site (Source: Bloomberg)
SpaceX has scrapped plans to build a small-scale liquefied natural gas plant at the rocket company’s Boca Chica launch site in Texas, federal documents show. SpaceX no longer proposes to build a desalination plant, power plant, natural gas pre-treatment system and liquefier at the site’s vertical launch area, the US Fish & Wildlife Service said in a May 12 document. The SpaceX plans were described in previous assessment documents in September and October. SpaceX didn’t immediately respond to an emailed request for comment.

Editor's Note: The LNG and desalination plant has been a controversial part of SpaceX's plan for Starbase's expansion to accommodate regular launches of its Starship/Super Heavy configuration. Removing this element of the grand plan at Starbase would require SpaceX to truck large quantities of LNG to the launch site for the rocket, or build a pipeline. Both of these alternatives might expand the scope of the ongoing environmental impact review for the site. (5/19)

Elon Musk’s SpaceX Tender Offer Getting ‘Tepid’ Demand (Source: New York Post)
Elon Musk is finding there is a limit to the amount of money he can raise — even from his exploration company SpaceX — after the privately-owned firm launched a funding round this week. There is “very tepid demand” in SpaceX’s tender offer for $1.25 billion, a source with direct knowledge of the situation told The Post on Tuesday.

The Post broke the news on Monday that SpaceX was launching the tender offer, raising speculation that Musk — who owned 44 percent of the shares as of August — was selling some stock to help fund his $44 billion Twitter deal. Musk is not believed to have ever sold stock in SpaceX and it is still not clear that he is participating in this tender offer, a second source close to the situation said.

But this tender offer looks like it is not going to be oversubscribed, the sources said. SpaceX still might be able to sell the $1.25 billion in shares that existing stockholders are selling, but likely not much more, sources said. The company’s $125 billion valuation is 25 percent above its December 2021 valuation and 69 percent more than SpaceX was valued at in February 2021. “No one is paying up for anything in this market,” the second source said, with public and private valuations of tech companies collapsing. (5/19)

Ball and Raytheon to Develop NOAA Weather Satellite Instruments (Source: Space News)
Ball Aerospace and Raytheon won government awards for work on next-generation satellite weather instruments. Each company won fixed-price awards valued at about $5 million each for definition studies of concepts for the Atmospheric Composition instrument for the Geostationary Extended Observations program, called GeoXO. The instrument will gather imagery from ultraviolet through visible spectral bands for studying atmospheric chemicals and aerosols. Based on the industry studies, NOAA will establish requirements for the instrument implementation contract, which the agency plans to award in 2024. NOAA plans to start fielding the GeoXO satellites in the early 2030s. (5/19)

Europe and Canada Lead Actic Weather Satellite Observation (Source: Space News)
Europe and Canada are taking the lead in developing weather satellites to gather global data and improve observation of the Arctic. A consortium led by OHB Sweden AB is developing a prototype for the European Space Agency's Arctic Weather Satellite, a proposed constellation of 16 small satellites in polar orbit to gather weather data. A prototype satellite is scheduled for launch in 2024. The Canadian Space Agency is working with Environment and Climate Change Canada and Natural Resources Canada on a two-year campaign to evaluate the cost and potential benefits of a proposed Arctic Observing Mission, with two satellites in highly elliptical orbits. Those satellites could launch in the early 2030s if approved for funding in 2025. (5/19)

Japanese Astronaut Likely for Artemis Lunar Mission (Source: Kyodo)
Japan and the United States could soon confirm plans to fly Japanese astronauts to the moon. Prime Minister Fumio Kishida and President Joe Biden are expected to announce their "shared ambition" to include Japanese astronauts on Artemis lunar landing missions when the leaders meet in Tokyo early next week. Japanese government sources said the announcement will also include their intent to complete an agreement next year on bilateral space exploration cooperation. Kishida said in December that he had a goal of landing a Japanese astronaut on the moon in the late 2020s. (5/19)

India Plans 75-Satellite Constellation for IoT, Independence Celebration (Source: India Today)
India is planning to mark 75 years of independence with a 75-satellite constellation. The 75 satellites, built by students, will be launched to low Earth orbit later this year, according to information provided by the Indian space agency ISRO to government ministries. The satellites will test internet-of-things applications, but ISRO provided few additional details on the satellites. (5/19)

NASA Puzzled by Latest Voyager 1 Telemetry (Source: Space.com)
NASA is puzzled by telemetry coming from the Voyager 1 spacecraft. Project officials said that while the spacecraft appears to be operating normally, a system used to control the spacecraft's attitude is providing "junk telemetry data" to controllers. That issue is not affecting the actual orientation of the spacecraft, deepening the mystery about the problem. Voyager 2 is not experiencing the same problem, NASA added. (5/19)

NASA Puts Hold on ISS Spacewalks (Source: Space News)
NASA is putting on hold spacewalks at the ISS while it investigates a water leak during a spacewalk in March. In that March 23 spacewalk, ESA astronaut Matthias Maurer reported a thin layer of water pooling on his visor at the end of the seven-hour spacewalk. At a briefing earlier this week, NASA confirmed that the agency is "no-go" on routine spacewalks while it continues to investigate the problem, but would consider performing contingency spacewalks for any critical repairs on the station. NASA was not planning any spacewalks until later this year. NASA's safety advisers also noted the issue at a meeting last week, seeing it as evidence the aging spacesuits needs to be replaced. (5/19)

Space Force: Industry Innovations Outpacing DoD Demand (Source: Space News)
The Pentagon is finding it difficult to keep up with commercial space innovations, a Space Force general said Wednesday. Lt. Gen. Michael Guetlein, commander of the U.S. Space Force's Space Systems Command, said the rate of progress in industry is "actually outpacing the demand signal from the government," and that the military was challenged to best make use of those capabilities. There are many business opportunities for companies but they are not presented to them in a user friendly way, he said, noting efforts to address the problem from increased frequency of industry days to "sherpas" to guide startups. (5/19)

Norway Orders Microsatellites to Monitor North Sea Traffic (Source: Space News)
Norway's Kongsberg Defence & Aerospace has ordered three microsatellites to keep tabs on vessels operating clandestinely in the North Sea. The satellites, to be built by Lithuania's NanoAvionics for a 2024 launch, will carry instruments to track AIS transponders on ships as well as detect radar signals from vessels not broadcasting AIS signals. The satellites will support Norway's defense operations and efforts to crack down on activities including illegal fishing, smuggling and environmental crime. (5/19)

SpaceX Urged by US to Ease Blow to Wildlife in Texas Launch Plan (Source: Bloomberg)
The Fish and Wildlife Service has completed its assessment of the effects of SpaceX Starship launches from the company's Boca Chica, Texas, test site. The final assessment, completed last week, recommended several mitigation measures to limit the impact of Starship launches on endangered species, including adjusting lights and using shuttle buses to take employees to the launch site. The review is part of a broader environmental assessment, currently scheduled for completion late this month after several delays, needed for an FAA launch license. (5/19)

Blue Origin Delays Next New Shepard Suborbital Tourism Mission (Source: Blue Origin)
Blue Origin is delaying a New Shepard suborbital flight that had been scheduled for Friday. The company said Wednesday that a backup system on the vehicle "was not meeting our expectations for performance," but did not elaborate on the specific system or problem. The NS-21 mission, carrying six customers, will be delayed, but Blue Origin did not announce a new launch date. (5/19)